The Sensex could touch the 39,000-mark by December in its `bull case scenario’ says Morgan Stanley . The brokerage sees a 30% probability of the Sensex touching its target.
The brokerage has a base case target at 30,000 and a bear case of 24,000 for the Sensex by December. Morgan Stanley attaches 50% probability to the Sensex meeting its base case target and 20% probability to its bear case target.
In terms of corporate fundamentals, the brokerage believes that an improving external environment, stronger consumption and robust public capex augur well for earnings, while it said headwinds would come from higher oil prices and sluggish private capex.